H2 Gambling Capital now expects global gambling revenues to fall by 11% following “the biggest week of downgrades to date” arising from the global spread of the novel coronavirus (Covid-19).
The headline downgrade figure of 11%, compared to 8% earlier this month, is due to the subsequent closure of most gambling facilities in the western world and the cancellation and postponement of major sports events, including the Euros.
iGB’s principal data partner now believes the best-case revenue scenario for the industry this year is $421bn, representing a sequential decline of 8% on 2019 and effectively bringing the value of the global gambling market to below 2017 levels.
H2 added that as the pandemic continues to spread across the globe, it expects a final impact on 2020 revenues of at least 12.5%.
With land-based facilities hit first and hardest by the movement restrictions imposed by governments in attempts to slow the spread of the pandemic, online has seen its forecast share of global gross win rise to 16% from c13.2% since the start of the outbreak.
The Asia-Pacific region, where the epidemic originated and forced the closure of destination gaming markets in Macau, Singapore, South Korea and the Chinese lottery markets, has been assigned the highest downgrade by H2 of 15.5%.
In Europe, where the largest gambling market of Italy has also been the nation most stricken by the virus with the highest number of deaths, is now expected to suffer a 9.4% hit to revenues in 2020.